Could Chris Carter win a by election as an Independent? Probably.
The logic is pretty simple. If Labour put up a candidate, Chris stands, and National’s vote stays where it was in 2008, National would win. So Labour would not run a candidate, as National did not against the un-flushable grogan, Winston Raymond Peters, 65, Pensioner of no fixed abode, in 1993 in Tauranga.
Te Atatu is definitely in play now, either immediately in a by-election or next year in the general election. In 2008 the party vote in Te Atatu was:
Labour 13,171
National 13,183
That Chris Carter won handily with a greater vote than Labour itself shows how effective as a local MP he is compared with the tide running out on Labour. He is now in the same position as Taito Philip Field was when he openly declared war against the party. If Labour chucks him out, remember corruption is ok, but disloyalty gets you chucked out, then Labour has more than a couple of problems.
- They need to select a new candidate, Phil Twyford is the obvious choice, but then again he has had 4 cracks already and a fifth would be the death knell for him. He is disliked by the union faction though and would struggle to gain selection.
- Peter Kaiser, Chris Carter’s partner is also the chair of the LEC. This is problematic in trying to pick a new candidate, because the electorate organisation is solidly behind Chris Carter and if they stay put then Head Office faces an embarrassment in over-riding the democratically elected LEC.
- If Twyford, by a minor miracle did end up winning a by-election then Labour has the Tizard effect come into play again.
- Chris Carter will not be alone. That he got sprung and blew the coup before they all lined up behind Cunliffe is problematic. But you can be sure that Carter’s thoughts are not alone. Phil Goff is only leader today because the leaked letter was supposed to run a few days in the press in order to de-stabilise, all ready for caucus on Tuesday when the knife would have gone in. Goff has only postponed that. It is inevitable that he will be knifed, it is now only a matter of when.
National too has problems. If I was Chris Carter contemplating sticking it up Labour then I would resign right now and force a by-election. Tau Henare can’t beat Chris Carter and right now he is the only person named for Te Atatu. If National decided on selecting another candidate then time starts expiring pretty quickly in sourcing a quality candidate who could take on Chris Carter in Te Atatu. If National ran Tau Henare then Chris Carter would be returned as an independent easily defeating anyone Labour cares to put up.
Politics just got very, very interesting.
As for Chris Carter, I extend to him a free post, unedited, on whatever her would like to say, in order to get his story across without spin. Take this offer as part of my mea culpa for my previous error over the phone bills affair. I’d love to present his story un-filtered by the constraints of the MSM formats.
Popularity: unranked [?]
{ 11 comments }
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
5 
0
You overlook one small fact Cam. Labour cannot force Carter to resign from Te Atatu. Carter is the duly elected Te Atatu MP, not Labour’s Te Atatu MP. Think Philip Field (Independant – Mangere). Why would Carter resign as an MP, even if Labour expel him?
Like or Dislike:
4 
1
Stand up Michael Jones!!!!!!!
Like or Dislike:
1 
2
Hate to spoil the party, but the Gnats were looking at Mt Albert party vote numbers before that by-election also and look how that turned out!
Like or Dislike:
2 
1
Melissa Lee turned out to be poor at politics. The trouble with any by-election in Auckland will be the Labour rent-a-mob who will spoil any National Candidate’s campaign. However a good candidate from the start will be useful. Someone who does not buckle under the hard confronting questions and someone who does not suggest or imply that all darkies from South Auckland are criminals. Perhaps Jones does have the Mana to outflank the red carpet baggers. I certainly would not run with the deadfish Henare.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
11 
3
from recent photos of the bugger, I reckon he’s got The virus
and that’d explain the death wish.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 
1
I’ve just seen Prissy Carter’s sour-grapes moan to Granny Herald on the web
I love watching these fatuous waste-of-space tossers self-destructing.
The show rolls on…
how low will they go?
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
5 
0
Don’t let that idiot use your blog as a platform to try and defend his actions. Anonymous letters is the refuge of a scoundrel and coward. He got the sulk because he was reprimanded by Goff for a trip to Tibet. He has a history of thieving taxpayer money, using it to live the high life which as a former teacher he could only dream about. No more protection from the SheBeast and he is acting like a sulky girl. He even had the hide to say on TV last night that by using his handwriting was proof that he didn’t really mind getting outed as the writer (almost part of the plan so to speak). He can polish a turd all he likes but it is still a turd.
Like or Dislike:
1 
1
Cater is just another queen throwing a hissy fit.
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
in fact, Timboh, he seems to like being ‘out’.
He is ‘out’ in many senses now – out of the closet, out as the letter-writer, out of Labour
and hopefully soon out of taxpayer money. Just need an election
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
No he won’t resign there are still perks on offer he could start his own political party and be a party leader.
Running as an independent rarely works and is usually a fast track to the political wilderness from which few return.
Melissa Lee might be right for another try, having met her once she seems like a nice lady, she just has to learn the truth and politics don’t always mix.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
Anonymous – why anonymous?
If he was really serious about staying anonymous he would have gone to an internet cafe, somewhere in West Auckland, set up an email account under Bob Harvey’s name and where there are no camera’s and it’s ‘gay friendly’.
That’s if he was really clever but he’s not really clever is he. He’s a cock.
A queen having a swipe at Goof-E, egged on by a rooster that roots and a couple of old worn out roosters, that pretty much sums up the labour party at present, love it when the queen turns.
Comments on this entry are closed.